Is sports TV viewership turning the corner? Here’s what the experts think

As we navigate a global pandemic that has disrupted so many aspects of our lives, one of the many things impacted has been sports viewership consumption. Most of the jewel sporting events since March 2020 have decreased significantly in viewership, including Super Bowl LV in February.

This decline in viewership is why I was so interested in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The race portion of last year’s event averaged 9.26 million viewers on NBC, the least-watched Kentucky Derby on record, and down 43 percent in viewership from 2019. It was a stunning number for viewership geeks but also explainable: The race was moved from May to September, and it lost its place as the first Triple Crown event. With the race returning to its normal place in the calendar, how would it fare?

Last week we received the answer. The race portion averaged 14.37 million viewers on NBC, up a whopping 55 percent in viewership but down 12 percent from 2019 (16.34 million viewers). In my opinion, the number provides cautious optimism that we will see an uptick for other upcoming jewel events. The NFL Draft, which we talk about below, also provided some useful data.

On this note, I wanted to offer some thoughtful perspective on where we are headed with sports viewership. For that, I paneled Sports Media Watch founder Jon Lewis and Sports Business Daily assistant managing editor/digital Austin Karp. Both have written about television viewership for multiple decades. Below, is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation.

Let’s start with the NFL Draft. The three days averaged 6.08 million viewers across ESPN, ABC and the NFL Network, down from a record 8.2 million last year, and close to flat from 2019. What does that mean?

Karp: Thinking about it from a three-day perspective, there’s still interest in it as a live event. People will still sit there for five or six hours on a Saturday and keep it as background noise. But I think what we really need to hone in on is that first round. Think of it like the Oscars. It’s like the NFL puts Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Director, all the big categories on Thursday night. Then you get Best Cinematography on Friday or Saturday. That first-round number, which is what people are really paying attention to, that was really strong and ahead of what I thought it would be. It wasn’t what it was for the record-setting number in 2020 when there was absolutely nothing going on, no competition. So I’d say thank you to Adam Schefter and Aaron Rodgers for helping boost it the first round a little bit.

As Austin said, the opening night of the draft was huge business for the league — 12.6 million viewers across the networks. Should we focus more on the first-day number or the entire draft number?

Lewis: I think you can focus on both. That first night is a massive number by any standard. It beats the Oscars, beats pretty much everything else on TV. It’s also a pretty safe bet that it will beat some NBA Finals and World Series games this year as well. But I do think the three-day number matters because the fact is that pace wasn’t sustained in Day 2 and Day 3. For Day 3, you are obviously talking about the final (four) rounds of a three-day draft. The fact that it does as well as it does is incredible. But it wasn’t the strongest finish.

So that tells me there’s not necessarily vulnerability there, but the fact is the NFL Network had its least-watched draft telecast in at least nine years with Day 3. I don’t think that’s nothing. But again, if you’re the NFL, you’re doing backflips that you had the kind of number that you had for that first round. What we might be seeing is people are more judicious with their viewing. They might tune in for a first round, a big event, and not necessarily stick around as much for the more boring elements that second and third night.

Day 3 of the NFL Draft was down, as you guys said. Jon reported that Saturday’s final round averaged 2.71 million viewers, down 35 percent in viewership from last year and 14 percent from 2019. It was the least-watched final day of the draft since 2017. There is no spinning that if you are the NFL. But they’re still drawing some 2.7 million viewers across three networks for Day 3 of an NFL Draft, a non-game. How many sporting properties would kill for 2.7 million viewers?

Karp: The answer to your question is every league would kill for that number. Any property would kill for that number. But what Jon said is true. NFL Network on its own was down significantly on Saturday. ESPN was similarly down significantly on Saturday. But you’re also throwing the event on ABC now, where for many years it did not have that broadcast TV presence. So you are getting the three-network exposure. They’re trying these gimmicky things and maybe they can tinker with it. Network execs still have to be happy, advertisers have to be happy, and the league has to be happy.

My thesis, rightly or wrongly, was that how the Kentucky Derby did this year was going to be an indicator for how we might see viewership later on in the year for what I would call the jewel events. Jewel events to me are things like the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup Final, the Major League Baseball All-Star Game, golf majors, the Coca-Cola 600, the Olympics, etc. … So the Kentucky Derby averaged 14.4 million viewers and peaked at 15.7 million during the race. That makes me cautiously optimistic about some of the other numbers we’re going to see later this year. What did you think of the Derby viewership number?

Lewis: I thought it was a very strong number given everything. The fact that they were able to basically recoup nearly all of their losses from last year in terms of viewership was about as good as NBC could have hoped for. I was thinking maybe 11, 12 or 13 million. I had said to your colleague Bill Shea at The Athletic that I thought maybe it might beat the Oscars and the NFL Draft and then by the time of the race I was actually second-guessing myself because I’m like, there’s no hype for this. Horse racing doesn’t generally get a lot of hype, and we’re still dealing with the conditions of everything. Then for it to get 14 million, I was pretty surprised by that. That was a very strong number. I don’t necessarily know how much of a harbinger that will be for the NBA and Stanley Cup, but I do think it was a strong number for the Derby.

Karp: I was surprised as well. I did not think it would do that strong a number. I think it does go to reinforce that there is pent-up demand for watching a normal sporting event. It wasn’t a packed house at Churchill Downs, but you had the pomp and pageantry and the hats, and kind of that semblance of normalcy, kind of like the draft did with people giving Roger Goodell high-fives. I think it might be a harbinger of some better numbers. I don’t know if that’s going to help the NHL, but I think it could help the NBA. I think it could help the Olympics. It could help the MLB All-Star Game. We didn’t even see Wimbledon last year, so could it help something like that? And I think if we see a normal schedule for the start of college football, I think you’ll see an uptick to start that season.

The Kentucky Derby didn’t return to pre-2019 levels, but 2021’s number has to be considered a success for NBC. (Michael Clevenger and O’Neil Arnold / USA Today)

The NBA and NHL postseasons will be, for the most, back in their regular windows. There are certain changes to both playoff structures and we are dealing with minimal fans. Give me some of the things you’re thinking about in terms of potential viewership here.

Karp: I’ll start with the NBA. It’s going to be name-driven, like it is a lot of times. People want to see LeBron (James) play, and they’re going to want to see some of the bigger names. You’re going to see Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden for the first time in the playoffs with the Nets. Something I’m really paying attention to are the Knicks. If they can make a run here and make it to maybe the Eastern Conference semifinals or finals, you’re going to see a huge number coming out of the New York market. That’s really going to help boost some of those numbers.

Lewis: It would be absolutely shocking if the ratings of the NBA Finals were not up double digits. But there’s a big difference between being up the way the Derby was or the Masters (final round) was and small double digits. The NBA’s second round would normally be underway right now. By the time the playoff starts, knock on wood that everything starts as scheduled, that’s going to be around the time the conference finals would usually start. You’re going to have first-round games on Memorial Day. The NBA Finals started the day after Memorial Day back in 2019. So it is sort of a normal time of year for the NBA and obviously a much better time of year than last year, if only just because they don’t have to go up against the NFL. Last year if they had had the Finals out of the way by maybe Week 1 of the NFL season, I think they would have gotten some better numbers. Nothing dramatically better, but still better than what they got. So time of year matters.

Austin was talking about how we might see Durant, Harden and Kyrie. I mean, are we sure? Are we sure everyone is going to be healthy? What about COVID protocol? We have seen this impact teams already with Dennis Schröder out. Zach LaVine and the Bulls were in the playoff hunt and then he was out with COVID protocol. I would be shocked if there wasn’t at least one key player who had to miss a round with COVID. What if it is a star?

This isn’t an Albert Einstein take by me, but I have written often that if the Knicks could ever sustain consistent winning, if the Bulls could do the same, and if the Warriors returned to full health, it would have a massive impact on the league’s viewership numbers. You’d have two major markets more East than West, which the league desperately needs for television draws. Maybe Brooklyn will ultimately be that. Both of you know that for five years the Warriors were essentially your best television team. They helped carry the league from 2015 to 2019. People forget that the NBA Finals had 31 million viewers for Game 7 of the 2016 Finals between the Warriors and Cavs. There are things that would change the equation for the league, and you hit it with the Knicks. The market has not been in play in forever. Imagine if the Knicks win a round or two.

Karp: I mean, can you imagine a Knicks-Nets series? ESPN or TNT would love to have a piece of that and it would be huge. I think in the last week of the season there is a Lakers-Knicks game that could be TNT’s best regular-season game if LeBron is back, in particular. A strong Knicks team could really help the league out. Just as far as the playoffs go, from a 30,000-foot level, Jon hit on something that is interesting in the timing.

With everything sliding back, you’re going to have to look at HUT (houses using televisions) levels as we get deeper into the playoffs. Because as you get deeper into June, people are out of school, people are going on vacation, so there might be less television watching, which is what we typically see during the summer. That could hurt numbers on top of the fact that TV is fragmented, media viewing is fragmented, and that is across sports. People are just watching less of all of it. There are so many mitigating factors.

In a name- and team-driven NBA, who gets into the playoffs and who’s able to be on the court will be a major factor for ratings. (Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)

What do you guys think of the NHL postseason?

Lewis: I think it’s hard to get a feel generally because you don’t see local ratings anymore. Obviously, we all know those local ratings across the board have to be tanking with the amount of difficulty they’re having getting into people’s homes. And the national ratings really aren’t very good at all. Neither the NHL nor the NBA are really doing so hot this season. I think the NBA is faring a little bit better than the NHL. I think the NHL has really had a very quiet, forgettable year.

I may be projecting a bit, but I don’t know how much faith everyone has in the NHL’s idea. Do you really think you’re going to be able to make this work in a way that feels right? Because a Canadian team playing in the States at a neutral site (which would likely happen in the semifinals), it’s just going to be kind of odd. Then the changes to the divisions, so the fact that you haven’t had anyone (play a team) outside of their own division all season. With the NBA, at least, you’ve had teams playing each other in a semi-normal fashion. I get the sense that between the NHL and the NBA, I feel like the NHL is going to have an even tougher road in this postseason because it’s just been so different.

Karp: The NHL is going to get a string one day where it’s going to be some Canadian teams in the finals. NBC has not really had to deal with a whole lot of that. They haven’t had to deal with Canadian teams winning it and they very rarely have had to deal even with a Canadian team making the Stanley Cup final (— only once since 2008). They’ve been very lucky in that regard viewership-wise. If you start seeing a bunch of Montreal-Vancouver finals, that’s going to hurt (viewership in the U.S.) significantly. Like Jon said, I’m much more bullish on the NBA versus the NHL in terms of postseason success.

Let’s finish up with the Olympics. The Tokyo Olympics at the moment are scheduled for July 23 to Aug. 8. We can argue philosophically, morally or on a humanistic level whether the Games should happen, but for this conversation we are talking about viewership. The Olympics have always been a communal experience. It’s something that has brought us together. That’s the positive for NBC. On the other hand, people are tired. The pandemic’s taken a lot out of all of us. Sports viewership numbers have been down and the Olympics are a big-time viewership commitment. How do you view the prospect right now of a Tokyo Olympics?

Lewis: I think it’ll be like the Oscars. I feel like it’s going to be a pretty steep decline. I think we are looking at an Oscars/NBA Finals decline. I think it was going to be a pretty steep decline even in the alternate universe of COVID never existing if the Olympics took place in 2020. Now it is a year out of schedule. So it’s been five years since the last summer Olympics and three years since the last Olympics overall. You’re probably not going to have hugely packed stadiums and maybe you don’t have fans at all. You don’t have Michael Phelps, you don’t have Usain Bolt. You do have Simone Biles, but you need Phelps and Bolt, too. One person can’t anchor an Olympics. So I think it’ll make Rio, which was a pretty shockingly low number at the time, look like Atlanta or Los Angeles by comparison.

Karp: I think Jon hit it on the head there. I think right off the bat you’ll see the least-watched Opening Ceremony ever. Outside of Katie Ledecky, I can’t really name anybody in the swim team. I know it’s May. I know we really haven’t had the U.S. trials yet. But that’s the first week of the Olympics, and you’re going to see a pretty sharp drop-off there. I really don’t know too many members of the USA Track and Field team yet. Again, we haven’t had the Trials or there hasn’t been that mass marketing push. Is there going to be a mass marketing push behind any individuals? It’s a very name-driven thing, and this is the first time in 15 or 20 years that we’re not going to have Phelps there. We are not going to have a Usain Bolt with appointment viewing. You always knew during these things that Michael Phelps’ race was coming on and he’s got that chance at X number of golds. Same with Bolt. That was destination viewing. I just don’t know that NBC’s going to have that for these Games.

(Top photo of Jaylen Waddle at the NFL Draft: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)